I hope everyone in FL, GA, SC and NC remains safe:
The University of North Carolina at Wilmington announced on Tuesday afternoon that all 15,000 of its students would be required to evacuate the coastal campus by midday on Thursday as Hurricane Matthew, one of the most powerful Atlantic storms in years, approaches from the south.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that the storm could make landfall near Wilmington on Saturday.
The university said all classes, events, and activities scheduled for after 5 p.m. on Wednesday would be canceled “until further notice,” and it offered help to students who do not have a place to stay.
The storm passed over Haiti on Tuesday, leaving a path of destruction, and was reaching Cuba on Tuesday night, according to reports by ABC and NBC News. At least eight deaths have been attributed to the storm in South America and the Caribbean, and the toll is expected to rise.
With forecasters predicting that Matthew could reach Florida by Thursday morning and possibly linger off the Southeastern coast, governors in four states — Florida, Georgia, and North and South Carolina — declared emergencies on Tuesday for all or parts of their states, and many universities in the region were already canceling classes or making contingency plans.
But, if Hurricane Matthew turns east as forecast at 11 am today [1] this may be a false alarm with just a bunch of rain in Wilmington. Evacuating 15,000 students could cost $6 million ($400 ($273*1.47 inflation adjustment) per student x 15,000).
South Carolina has ordered 1 million people to evacuate. If that is a false alarm the cost is about $400 million with no benefit. Of course, the other type of error would be worse. At $80 million per life saved, deciding against an evacuation order for South Carolina would cost more if 50 or more people died.
Notes:
[1] Here is the most recent forecast from the National Hurricane Center:
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