Environmental Economics

2017 Winter Meeting - Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission

Wish me and Jane luck today:

February 1

2:15 - 5:45 p.m.

Atlantic Menhaden Management Board  Submitted Public Comment  Supplemental
 

• Welcome/Call to Order (R. Ballou)
• Board Consent
  • Approval of Agenda
  • Approval of Proceedings from October 2016
• Public Comment
• Review Socioeconomic Study of the Atlantic Menhaden Commercial Fishery (J. Harrison, J. Whitehead)
• Public Comment Summary of Draft Amendment 3 Public Information Document
  • Review Public Comment (M. Ware)
  • Review Advisory Panel Report (J. Kaelin)
• Provide Guidance to the Plan Development Team on Draft Amendment 3 (R. Ballou) Possible Action
• Discuss Allowance of Cast Nets under the Bycatch Provision of Amendment 2 (M. Ware) Possible Action
• Review and Populate Advisory Panel Membership (T. Berger) Action
• Other Business/Adjourn

via www.asmfc.org

You can watch it here:

Board/Section meeting proceedings will be broadcast daily via webinar beginning at 8:00 a.m. on January 31st and continuing daily until the conclusion of the meeting (expected to be 3:00 p.m.) on Thursday February 2^nd. The webinar will allow registrants to listen to board/section deliberations and view presentations and motions as they occur. No comments or questions will be accepted via the webinar. Should technical difficulties arise while streaming the broadcast, the boards/sections will continue their deliberations without interruption. We will attempt to resume the broadcast as soon as possible. Please go to https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2958062690378327044 to register.

I joined the webinar!

Using internet search volume to improve quota monitoring for the Gulf of Mexico red snapper recreational sector (QUEST Webinar Series)

Join us for a Webinar on October 6th November 3

Date: Thursday, October 6, November 3, 2016 
Time: 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EDT
Location: SSMC3, Room 3404

Abstract: This presentation will show how Google Internet Search Data can be used to improve recreational quota monitoring. Estimates of recreational fishing harvest are often unavailable until after a fishing season has ended, complicating efforts to stay within the quota. A simple way to monitor quota within the season is to use harvest information from the previous year. This works well when fishery conditions are stable, but is inaccurate when fishery conditions are changing. We develop regression-based models to improve our ability to monitor within-season recreational fishing harvest even when fishery conditions are changing. Our basic model accounts for seasonality, changes in the fishing season, and important events in the fishery. Our extended model uses Google Trends® data on the internet search volume relevant to the fishery of interest, in this case Gulf of Mexico red snapper.

The recreational sector in the Gulf of Mexico overharvested red snapper nearly every year from 2007 to 2013. Our results confirm that data for the previous year work well to predict within-season harvest for a year (2012) where fishery conditions are consistent with historic patterns. However, for a year (2013) of unprecedented harvest and management activity, our regression model using internet search volume for the term “red snapper season” generates within-season estimates that are 27% more accurate than the basic model without the internet search information and 29% more accurate than the prediction based on the previous year. More accurate estimates of within-season harvest will increase the likelihood that the Gulf of Mexico red snapper fishery can stay within quota. Our approach using internet search volume might have the potential to improve quota management in other fisheries where conditions change year-to-year.

Presenter: Dr. David Carter (NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center)

 

New working paper on the demand for seafood safety

Convergent validity of stated preference methods to estimate willingness-to-pay for seafood traceability: The case of Gulf of Mexico oysters

John C. Whitehead, O. Ashton Morgan and William L. Huth

No 16-15, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University

Abstract: In this study we compare willingness to pay for a seafood traceability system form contingent behavior demand and contingent valuation referendum vote models using data from a survey of Gulf of Mexico oyster consumers following the BP oil spill in 2010. We estimate a fixed effects model of oyster demand using contingent behavior data and find that a traceability program increases demand and consumer surplus. We estimate a referendum model for the seafood traceability program using contingent valuation data. We find that welfare estimates from the contingent behavior and contingent valuation methods are convergent valid under certain conditions. 

Date: 2016

Downloads: (external link)
http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp1615.pdf (application/pdf)

via econpapers.repec.org

And the Humuhumunukunukuapua'a* celebrate

The President is dramatically expanding the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument:

President Obama is set to vastly expand a marine sanctuary northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands, White House officials said Thursday, creating the world’s largest protected marine area as he seeks to cement his environmental legacy in his last months in office.

Mr. Obama will travel next week to Midway Atoll, a remote spit of land within the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, to recognize the designation and highlight the importance of protecting pristine lands and waters as the perils of climate change intensify.

The move, which will more than quadruple the size of the refuge and has been championed by conservationists, scientists and native Hawaiians, is the latest example of Mr. Obama’s expansive exercise of executive power to preserve public lands and waters.

“This act — to build resilience in our oceans, and sustain the diversity and productivity of sea life — could usher in a new century of conservation for our most special, and fragile, ocean areas,” said Sarah Chasis, director of the oceans program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Using the 100-year-old Antiquities Act, which was signed by President Theodore Roosevelt, Mr. Obama has protected hundreds of millions of acres in places of ecological, historical or cultural significance — more than any other American president. In 2014, he also greatly expanded the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument, south and west of Hawaii. But he has often drawn criticism from Republicans for acting unilaterally.

Created by President George W. Bush in 2006, the Papahanaumokuakea monument surrounds the uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and is home to an estimated 7,000 marine and terrestrial species, a quarter of which are found nowhere else on earth.

These include millions of tropical sea birds, endangered whales and sea turtles, and black coral, considered the longest-living marine species, according to information provided by the administration. Mr. Obama’s action will expand the size of the monument, which now encompasses a little less than 140,000 square miles, to more than 580,000.

*The state fish of Hawaii. 

And yes, I can pronounce it. 

It's pronounced "Reef Trigger Fish". 

Come on, that was funny. 

But, I really can pronounce it. 

But that's kind of hard to prove in print. 

Here's a picture.

 

"Accounting for heterogeneity in behavioural responses to health-risk information treatments"

Abstract from O. Ashton Morgan, John C. Whitehead & William L. Huth, Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol 5, No 3, Pages: 283-297:

Traditional revealed and stated preference models consider a typical individual's behavioural responses to various policy-based information treatments. For some cost–benefit applications in which resource managers are concerned with responses from a representative individual, this is sufficient. However, as behavioural responses to information treatments can vary across respondents, we develop a latent class analysis with covariates to examine unobserved heterogeneity responses to health-risk information treatments. Results from a probabilistic model indicate that classes of consumers respond differently to the health-risk information treatments. Principally, we find that the media form of the information treatment is important, with raw consumer groups typically more responsive to a brochure information treatment, while cooked oyster consumers are more responsive to the same information in a video format. We also find that a proposed US Food and Drug Administration policy on processing all raw oysters before market has a greater effect on reducing demand for consumers of cooked oysters. However, with an associated price premium, all consumer classes reduce demand. Overall, the results suggest that future policy-based research could benefit from examining potential heterogeneity in individuals’ responses to risk information treatments in order to fully understand the efficacy of treatments on behaviour.

via www.tandfonline.com

Have I told this story before? If so, stop now.

These data were collected before the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. We estimated a latent class oyster demand model to account for preference heterogeneity with variables that modeled the class structure. We sent the paper out and a referee said the latent class model was nonsense, just split the sample based on those variables and estimate separate demand models. We did as told and the paper was published [Morgan et al. (EARE 2013)]. We decided the latent class model wasn't total nonsense and shipped a paper out with a model that, for some reason, did not model the class structure. The referee said why don't you model the class structure? We thought back and remembered, oh, we did. 

And if you are wondering ... Morgan et al. (Land Econ 2016) uses data from a post-spill survey and compares how consumption changes.

 

 

Why we might need more catch shares in fisheries management

Beeliner:

The daily trip limit for the commercial harvest of vermilion snapper in federal waters of the South Atlantic is reduced from 1,000 pounds gutted weight to 500 pounds gutted weight, effective 12:01 a.m. (local time) August 28, 2016.  NOAA Fisheries has determined 75 percent of the July-December quota of 431,460 pounds whole weight will be landed by August 28, 2016. 

Reduction of the commercial vermilion snapper trip limit when 75 percent of the July-December quota is reached in federal waters of the South Atlantic complies with regulations implemented under the Fishery Management Plan for the Snapper-Grouper Fishery of the South Atlantic Region.  The 500-pound gutted weight trip limit applies to vessels with a South Atlantic Unlimited Snapper-Grouper Permit fishing for vermilion snapper in or from the federal waters in the South Atlantic region.  The 500-pound gutted weight trip limit will remain in effect until the end of the current July – December 2016 fishing season or until the quota is reached and vermilion snapper closes, whichever occurs first.

via sero.nmfs.noaa.gov

Imagine that food at the grocery store is an unpriced good and when you go grocery open-access shopping, in order to limit the amount of free food that you could grab, they only allowed you to fill up a small cart. Isn't that stupid? And when they started running out of food they only allowed you to fill up half your small cart so that others could get some food before it ran out. But, you could make multiple trips to the store. Now that is really stupid. All it does is raise the cost of getting food when the real problem is that the food is an unpriced good. 

This is from a 2011 post mourning the day that catch shares died in the South Atlantic:

From the SAFMC's South Atlantic Update:

In March, the Council approved a motion to “terminate all work relative to catch share development in Amendment 21” (catch share development would continue for the golden crab fishery and wreckfish). The amendment, known as the Comprehensive Catch Share Amendment, addressed the possible use of catch share programs for snapper grouper species currently under management through quotas with the exception of snowy grouper. The amendment also included options for effort and participation reduction and endorsement actions. ...

The South Atlantic Council has explored the use of catch shares over the past few years, using work groups and soliciting public input. During discussion of the motion, Council members noted that catch share programs are considered one of many management tools and that the removal of their consideration in Amendment 21 does not preclude their future consideration. The Council will review the remaining actions in Amendment 21 during its June meeting.

Catch shares are individual (transferable) quotos, more or less. The Socioeconomic Panel of the Statisical and Scientific Committee of the SAFMC (got all that straight) reviewed the catch shares provision of Amendment 21 and made some recommendations for the potential development of such a program. None of these recommendations included "terminate all work relative to catch share development in Amendment 21." Here is what we said about golden crab catch shares:

We recommend adoption of Alternative 2 under Action 1; Implement a catch share program for the golden crab fishery.  With the understanding that current permit holders favor the formation of a catch-share program, the SEP agrees that such a program will facilitate the management goals to “create incentives for conservation and regulatory compliance” and provide participants with the opportunity to earn “long-run benefits from efforts to conserve and manage the golden crab resource.”  Exclusive rights to shares of the allowable catch will allow permit holders the security to take least-cost methods to harvest the catch and may encourage harvest methods that maximize quality and ex-vessel revenues.  The net benefits of the program will likely be increased by increased transferability of the catch shares.

The snapper-grouper fishery is more complicated than golden crab but I think the same sentiments would apply.

 

Field Research: The Effects of Climate Change on a Florida Vacation

With apologies to my loyal readers (OK, just John) for my intermittent posts, I spent the last week doing some 'field research' in the Florida Keys.  My goal was to observe the effects of climate change first hand.  And let me tell you my field observations are revealing.

1. It's freaking hot in August in the Keys.  And it's been getting hotter for the last couple of decades--at least according to Captain Tony--the Lyin' Hawaiian.  And who wouldn't trust someone with that name?
2. Despite my many efforts, climate change makes it extremely difficult to keep beer cold outside. I tried again, and again, and again, and again...to keep my beer cold until I reached the bottom, but the only reliable solution I came up with was to drink faster.    
3. 90 degree water temperatures are only mildly refreshing when the heat index is 110. 
4. Sea grasses in the flats and bays south of the Everglades are struggling to survive high water temperatures--at least according to Captain Tony (the Lyin' Hawaiian--see #1).  Water temperatures in Key Largo Bay are about 4 degrees above normal (according to the Lyin' Hawaiian).  According to SeaWeb (I don't know--I just Googled it): "Increases in water temperature would reduce the productivity and cause the die-back of those seagrasses growing in areas already around the upper limit of their thermal tolerance."  Captain Tony says the current die off rivals that of the early 2000's and he doesn't have much hope for a recovery of the sea bed in and around the flats of Key Largo--He even suggested the only reasonable solution would be for the Federal Government to invoke eminent domain ("They should use eminent, er, what's that word?  Damn it's hot out here") to preserve he sea beds in the flats.
5. During my field research, my assistant (14 year old only son of Env-Econ--OSEE) and I were able to observe close-up some of the fish species in the flats of Key Largo and South Florida.  Here's are a couple of observational exhibits.  The first is OSEE (and the Lyin' Hawaiian) battling Jaws--a 5 foot bull shark.  The second is the 4.5 foot black tip I was able to observe.  No fish were harmed (other than the bate fish) in this observational study--although I think the two sharks wanted to harm some humans before we released them back to their habitat.  The last picture is me and OSEE with another of OSEE's catches.  I don't remember the specie, because at that point climate change had affected my cognitive abilities-even the Lyin' Hawaiian was complaining how hot it was.

 

 

The PR machine says Whitehead and Morgan are trending (at least in the 85th percentile of the small pond)

I like the idea, but I think renaming it 'Caribbean Butterfish' would speed the process

On April 30, 2012, I wrote:

Here is my solution to any aquatic invasive specie problem. Have the government start a covert marketing campaign designed to convince the public that the invasive specie is in fact a delicacy. They can even rename the specie to make it sound appetizing (think Toothfish to Chilean Sea Bass). But here's the catch... once the public is convinced of the delectable nature of the new exotic seafood, fail to regulate the fishery. As demand increases, prices will rise and the tragedy of the commons will eradicate the invaders.

Although they didn't rename it, Whole Foods seems to have heeded my suggestion for the invasive Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Lionfish:

Lionfish with their distinctive venomous spines are an invasive species that has thrived in U.S. coastal waters because they have no natural predators -- until now.

Whole Foods stores in Florida are selling the "white, buttery meat" of the fish, which the grocery chain says is suitable for ceviche or a "simple pan sauté."

The U.S. government, eager to stop the lionfish from preying on native fish and shellfish, gives the meal five stars.

"If we can't beat them, why not eat them?" says the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration in a PSA video. "Why wait? Get them on your plate."

The lionfish are native to the Pacific and Indian oceans, but can also be found in the Atlantic and Caribbean, where it is considered an invasive species, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The government blames the aquarium trade for introducing the fish to the U.S. in the 1980s, and encourages Americans to catch and eat them.

Here's the PSA:

If the government really wanted to speed the process they could subsidize the catch of Lionfish (er, Caribbean Butterfish) for food, thus speeding the tragedy of the commons (and lowering the price to consumers).  A problem might arise if consumers develop a taste for Lionfish and start demanding the government regulate the stock.  But that's a ways down the road. 

 

I'm reviewing transcribed minutes to make sure I didn't say anything stupid

From the 2015 SAFMC SEP meeting: