Here are the summary quotes:
“NABE Outlook panelists continue to view the economy as having solid momentum entering 2019, but they foresee GDP growth cooling from 2.9% this year to 2.7% in 2019,” said NABE President Kevin Swift, CBE, chief economist, American Chemistry Council. “The panel expects the Federal Reserve to continue gradually tightening monetary policy, and anticipates a federal funds rate hike at the upcoming December FOMC meeting, followed by three rate increases in 2019.” “While panelists remain generally optimistic, three-quarters of respondents see risks being tilted to the downside,” added Survey Chair Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist, Oxford Economics. “Panelists view increasing trade tensions as the primary downside risk to their outlook, with 80% of respondents reducing their 2019 GDP growth outlook in response to trade policy developments. Even so, recession risks are still perceived to be low in the near term, with the panel expecting a 20% risk of recession by the second half of 2019, and a 30% chance by the end of 2020.”
Here is one of the key results:
Almost two-thirds of panelists indicate they have lowered their forecasts for business investment in 2019 as a result of U.S. trade policy, while two-thirds have raised their inflation forecasts moderately. Forty-one percent of panelists indicate that they have lowered their forecasts for personal consumption expenditures, while a small majority reports that trade issues have had no impact on their forecasts for personal consumer expenditures.
Link: https://www.nabe.com/NABE/Surveys/Outlook_Surveys/December_2018_Outlook_Survey_Summary.aspx
