Environmental Economics

Daily Demand and Supply: On Thanksgiving, Americans are grateful OPEC can't get their act together

OPEC countries failed Thursday to agree to a cut in oil production that was desperately sought by some member states worried about the recent drop in prices.

Officials met for six hours of negotiations in Vienna. It would have been the first cut in production since 2008.

via money.cnn.com

OPEC relies on coordination to restrict oil output and maintain at levels that are predictable for oil revenue dependent economies. At least that's how things used to work. Not so much anymore.

"The lack of action is bad news for oil-producing countries like Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela, which depend on prices of at least $90 a barrel to meet their economic targets."

But good news for Thanksgiving travelers.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Happy Thanksgiving

Should emission interventions be a one-time shock or a series of tightening steps?

“Air quality has improved dramatically over the past decades, and air quality will continue to improve under the existing standards,” said Howard Feldman, director of regulatory affairs for the American Petroleum Institute, which lobbies for the oil industry. “The current review of health studies has not identified compelling evidence for more stringent standards, and current standards are protective of public health.”

via www.nytimes.com

Ignoring for the moment the obvious conflict of interest, this raising an interesting question. In modeling the effects of a tightening of emissions regulations, should we treat the regulation as a one-time shock to a dynamic system that puts us on a new path to a better steady state (as implied by this quote), or do we need a series of interventions that prevents reversion to a previous path?

Just wondering.

Marine Resource Economics Vol. 29, No. 4, December 2014

Marine Resource Economics Vol. 29, No. 4, December 2014 Published by: The University of Chicago Press

Special Issue: Seafood Markets and Aquaculture Production Frank Asche and Atle G. Guttormsen, Guest Editors Introduction   Seafood Markets and Aquaculture Production: Special Issue Introduction   Frank Asche and Atle G. Guttormsen   DOI: 10.1086/678924   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 301-304.     Fish Price Volatility   Roy Endre Dahl and Atle Oglend   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 305-322.     Looking to Grow Outside the United States   Jingjie Chu and Lacey Tudur   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 323-337.     The Bumpy Road of Demand Growth—An Application to Atlantic Salmon   Eivind Hestvik Brækkan and Sverre Braathen Thyholdt   DOI: 10.1086/678927   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 339-350.     Consumer Product Perceptions and Salmon Consumption Frequency: The Role of Heterogeneity Based on Food Lifestyle Segments   Yuko Onozaka, Håvard Hansen, and Arne Sørvig   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 351-374.     Imperfect Competition and Structural Changes in the US Salmon Import Market   Jinghua Xie and Dengjun Zhang   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 375-389.     Currency Invoicing in Norwegian Salmon Export   Hans-Martin Straume   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 391-409.     Exchange Rate Volatility and US Import Demand for Salmon   Dengjun Zhang and Henry W. Kinnucan   Marine Resource Economics December 2014, Vol. 29, No. 4: 411-430.

This is why climate change is a much better term than global warming.

In their paper, Francis and Vavrus suggested that a rapidly warming Arctic should interfere with the jet stream, the river of air high above us that flows eastward around the northern hemisphere and brings with it our weather. Sometimes, the jet stream flows relatively directly from west to east; but other times, it takes long, wavy loops, as in the image above. And according to Francis and Vavrus, Arctic warming should make the jet stream more wavy and loopy on average – some have called it “drunk” -- with dramatic weather consequences.

via www.washingtonpost.com

That's funny, I get wavy and loopy sometimes too...

Looks like I could have one less line on my resume soon

Congressional climate wars were dominated Tuesday by the U.S. Senate, which spent the day debating, and ultimately failing to pass, a bill approving the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline. While all that was happening, and largely unnoticed, the House was busy doing what it does best: attacking science.

H.R. 1422, which passed 229-191, would shake up the EPA’s Scientific Advisory Board, placing restrictions on those pesky scientists and creating room for experts with overt financial ties to the industries affected by EPA regulations.

The bill is being framed as a play for transparency: Rep. Michael Burgess, R-Texas, argued that the board’s current structure is problematic because it  “excludes industry experts, but not officials for environmental advocacy groups.” The inclusion of industry experts, he said, would right this injustice.

But the White House, which threatened to veto the bill, said it would “negatively affect the appointment of experts and would weaken the scientific independence and integrity of the SAB.”

via www.salon.com

I took the bait

From a reporter:

What I'm interested in is:

1. Your reaction to the study.

2. Your assessment of local fisheries based on what you have seen working with the SAFMC and well as the sanctuary.

My reply:

1a. That is an old study. Why is it drawing interest now?

1b. The statistical model that predicts collapse is very simple with a flow variable (collapsed fisheries that varies from year to year) regressed on a stock variable (cumulative number of years in the time series data). I created some data where the dependent variable (y in the paper) is a random number between 1 and 10 and the independent variable (x in the paper) is cumulative beginning with 1 and ending with 40 (years). My results aren't as impressive as those in the papers but it indicates a statistically significant relationship ... when there is none. If my simulated data is for the years 1970 to 2010 it would predict that all fisheries are gone by some year in the future too.

In short, I don't trust the model that generates 2048 as doomsday. 

2. I would go with this information: http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/sfa/fisheries_eco/status_of_fisheries/fssi.html

Here a two posts on that study from 2006 (no more crabcakes, ITQs).

The linear model doesn't fit the made up data but the double log model, the same functional form as this, fits pretty well (r=.32 which is less than .96, but still).

My EES linked accounts continue to grow!

Suggesting that I'm awesome!

You have received this email as confirmation that your Elsevier Editorial System (EES) account for [redacted] has been added to your consolidated user profile.

Currently, the following EES accounts are linked to your consolidated profile:

apen: Applied Energy
dib: Data in Brief
ecolec: Ecological Economics
ecolet: Economics Letters
forpol: Forest Policy and Economics
jeem: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
JEMA: Journal of Environmental Management
jfe: Journal of Forest Economics
joep: Journal of Economic Psychology
ree: Resource and Energy Economics

Or, that I've foolishly agreed to referee another paper. Sigh.

Cue the Jurassic Park Theme Music

In the context of the ecological effects of reintroducing lost species into ecosystems, Last week I half-jokingly asked "..if reintroducing wolves is this great, what would happen if we reintroduced dinosaurs?"  Well...

The fierce debate over whether to clone a woolly mammoth has been reignited by a fresh attempt to bring the species back from the dead.

South Korean scientists believe the extinct 'Mammuthus' can be brought back to life using the DNA of an extremely well preserved mammoth found in the Siberian snow.

Insung Hwang, a geneticist at Sooam, the South Korean biotech company working on the project, said this week his team think it is an achievable goal, using the fresh blood samples they have recovered.

“We’re trying hard to make this possible within our generation”, he told a Channel 4 documentary team who have been charting the project’s progress.

via www.telegraph.co.uk

AERE Happy Hour at the SEA meetings

I just sent this message:

AERE / SEA session participants,

Let's have our informal AERE Happy Hour after the Distinguished Guest Lecture ("Life as a Lab: Using Field Experiments in Economics" John List [see note below]) on Saturday. This is a great chance to meet old friends and new and organize your dinner party!

 

What: AERE Happy Hour

 

Why: Meet old friends and new and organize your dinner party

 

Where: Hotel lobby bar (i.e.., Pulse -- "At 5:00 pm, an audible heartbeat will welcome the beginning of an eight-hour social hour as Pulse transforms into a vibrant lounge. As the evening progresses, the bar staff intensifies the showcasing of mixology behind the bar by giving demonstrations on how to make classic and new trendy drinks. The color of the iconic sail will change with the mood of the evening ending with a heightened pulsating array of radiant colors as a salute to the evening.")

 

When: 6:15 pm

 

See you in Atlanta!

 

John W.

 

Note: Speaking of field experiments, I withdrew my field experiment paper just now. Buy me a beer at happy hour and I'll explain why!

 

I'll try to post on that note soon (if I can get ready for my other sessions). Here is the excuse that I gave the SEA "We've been waiting on some essential data and it has not arrived." Nor will it ever.