This has just been published in the journal Economics and Business Letters: Special Issue on Cultural Industries:
Criterion and predictive validity of revealed and stated preference data: the case of “Mountain Home Music” concert demand
Abstract
Despite a robust literature on nonmarket valuation of cultural assets, serious validity concerns remain. We address this by estimating a demand model for a regional concert series. We survey concertgoers during and then again after the concert season to gather ex ante and ex post stated and revealed preference data. Comparing ex ante stated preference data to ex post revealed preference data we find respondents overstate their concert attendance behavior. An ex ante revealed-stated preference demand model with a stated preference adjustment helps calibrate the results and avoid bias from using solely hypothetical, stated preference data. The results demonstrate how to improve predictive accuracy in contingent behavior models and improve our understanding of demand for live music performances.
via www.unioviedo.es
The full text is available here: http://www.unioviedo.es/reunido/index.php/EBL/article/view/10289/10016.
From the conclusions:
Despite its popularity in cultural economics, Hausman (2012) condemns SP data for hypothetical bias. Relative to contingent valuation there are very few contingent behavior studies where tests for hypothetical bias are even possible because of context and data limitations. We conduct a unique in-season and postseason survey to test the predictive validity of SP survey responses. This is a rare opportunity to apply it, and a novel opportunity in the cultural field. We find that SP concert attendance data lack criterion validity. Respondents tend to overstate their concert attendance behavior. Respondents are generally accurate, however, when predicting their own behavior after a statistical adjustment for hypothetical bias.
The sample size is only 38 so don't get too excited.
