The revenue analysis must've been done with linear extrapolation:
The state’s lottery director said in public on Wednesday the lottery cannot meet a $106 million target set by lawmakers in the state House because they wrote several other lottery restrictions into their plan, undermining a signature part of the House budget that passed on Friday.
The lottery’s target would help finance pay raises averaging about 5 percent for school teachers across North Carolina, under the House plan.
In an interview, Alice Garland, the lottery’s director since 2011, said she expressed concern about missing the target privately to a key House budget writer, state Rep. Nelson Dollar, before the House adopted its spending plan – and that documents were provided to key officials.
She said she was told by Dollar to stay quiet about it.
Dollar, a Wake County Republican, said in an interview that he did not say anything to Garland after she expressed concerns to him last week. He said he believes the lottery can reach the target set by the House and that he acted without seeing anything “in writing” that gave him reason to revise the target.
The House plan relies on turbocharging lottery sales by more than 20 percent through increased advertising statewide. More sales would mean more profits for education. But Garland told lawmakers Wednesday that the restrictions also written into the budget would “seriously impact” lottery sales – and the forecast of profits for the teacher raises.
Garland said the lottery would miss the mark set by the House by about $47 million because of the restrictions. ...
Republicans in the Senate called the House approach “foolishness” and an “absolute disaster.” A Democrat said it was a “gamble on gambling to pay teachers.”
The advertising restrictions include being more forthcoming about the low probability of winning anything significant ever.
And, glass houses NC Senate! Here is the NC Senate in 2011:
The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.
