From a 2012 N&O article about the "North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study":
John Dorman of the N.C. Division of Emergency Management, which is preparing a study of sea-level impact, said an “intense push” by the group [of coastal developers] and state legislators led to key alterations.
Instead of assuming a 1-meter, worst-case rise, he said, the study will report the impact of seas that rise only 3.9, 7.8, 11.7 and 15.6 inches by 2100. The 1-meter analysis will be available to local governments that request it.
“It’s not the product we had put the grant out for,” Dorman said, referring to the $5 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency that’s paying for the study. Coastal communities will still find the work useful, he predicts.
Here is a 2011 conference proceedings paper abstract about the study (appropriately titled "Shaping Sea-Level Rise Adaptation Policy through Science"):
Sea level rise adaptation policy is often approached without adequate knowledge of the potential hazard and risk impacts, or lacks consideration of detailed benefit cost analysis of adaptation strategies. The North Carolina Sea Level Rise Risk Management Study seeks to establish a comprehensive framework to directly translate the projected consequences into adaptation policy, with full realization of the potential long-term benefits. The study provides for detailed numerical quantification of the response of coastal and flood dynamics to sea level rise, and impact of those hazards on system-wide resources. A key objective of the effort is to inform the state legislature of the potential risk to sea level rise and the projected short- and long-term benefits of adaptation measures. We also seek to provide a transferable process framework and documenting lessons learned for conducting similar future assessments.
So, what happens when the state legislature is opposed to the key objective of a $5 million federally funded study? I had a minor role in this study (with Ash Morgan), estimating the effects of sea-level rise on county level incomes in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100. We completed the work over a year ago. The physical impacts (increasing water area in coastal counties) were an input to our economic model so I think the entire report is completed. But, it has not been released by the NC state government.
