Where I was Monday:

## April 28, 2014: Socioeconomic Panel of the SSC

Meeting Location:Crowne Plaza, 4831 Tanger Outlet Boulevard, North Charleston, SC 29418. Phone (843) 744-4422, or (877) 747-7301.

Briefing Book Materials(revised 4/11)

Webinar Registration:

via www.safmc.net

Did you miss the webinar? Dang!

From the transcripted minutes of the October 2012 meeting, here is my favorite Whitehead contribution:

Just playing with some numbers; I chose ten random numbers between 1,000 and 5,000. The simple average is about 2,900. Applying Boyles’ Law to these numbers gives me about 3,400, so it is about 450 greater than the simple average. Then applying a trend line gives me about 941 greater than the simple average. This doesn’t prove anything; it just shows that there are at least three straightforward ways of coming up with a number, and they give very different numbers. I don’t know which one is better. In terms of forecasting I think the trend line is better, but who knows?

Boyle's Law is an ad-hoc formula for determining allocations of quota between commercial and recreational sectors. The Socioeconomic Panel concluded that determining sector allocations by Boyle's Law would be less preferred relative to determining these by economic efficiency (either intersector trading or crossing marginal valuation curves). Boyle's Law is currently being used to determine allocations, but it is now called the Bowtie Rule, I think.