Go read Econbrowser instead. Menzie Chen:
In response to this post, climate model skeptic Rick Stryker writes (in ALL CAPS no less):
JUST BECAUSE A MODEL DESCRIBES THE EXISTING DATA DOESN’T MEAN THAT IT WILL DESCRIBE DATA THAT HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED
So far we’re in agreement; in fact I’m going to repeat this point to my econometrics class. He then continues:
You see, in science, you don’t prove the theory by showing that it describes the existing observations. You prove the theory by showing that it predicts data that haven’t been observed.
Well, gee, if this is the standard for proving or disproving hypotheses, either generally, or in econometrics, we’re not going to get very far. In this view, I won’t see our sun go nova, so might as well call it a day — science can’t proceed until we get the data! But this is the sort of nihilistic worldview that pervades the global climate change deniers.
For a more succinct critique, see below:
