In case you missed it, Krugman reads an environmental economics blog. Michael Roberts at 3G:
Update 2: Even more kudos to Krugman for linking here and expanding on my first point. It's amazing what a link from him does to visit numbers on this little ol' blog.
Update: Kudos to Paul Krugman to drawing attention to the issue.
So, the Midwest is getting crushed by heat and drought, and crop prices are reaching new record highs.
I'm a little depressed but not at all surprised by this. But that sentiment kind of matches everything in our economic, political and environmental world. Aside from some major life changes and general busyness, it's probably a reason I haven't been blogging much---there's really not much to say that hasn't already been said many times.
Anyhow, to reiterate a few basic points:
1. The usual politically-correct line is that we cannot tell whether its weather or climate change. The weather fluctuates and heat waves happen. But the data show that the relative frequency of extreme events like this has increased tremendously. Just look a few posts back or read Jim Hansen's Climate Dice paper (PDF). Statistically speaking, this is almost surely climate change.
2. This kind of heat for the US Midwest is already past due. I haven't crunched this season's numbers yet, but eyeballing it, this summer--about like 1988--is probably about what we should expect to be typical in the relatively near future.
3. Some new 'drought tolerant' varieties were rolled out this year. I guess we'll see how they do. So far it seems markets are not all that impressed.
4. Don't cry for the farmers. Prices are going up proportionately way more than yields will go down, so farm income is likely to rise on average. And besides, they have a sweetheart deal on subsidized crop insurance. Then they'll get disaster payments. Unlike health care and education for poor children, safety nets for wealthy farmers has always been a prerogative with happy bipartisan support. There are probably a few farmers out there that will get hurt by this, but far more farmers will get richer off this heat and drought than go bankrupt.
5. The biggest losers are consumers, especially the poor in food-importing developing countries.
And Roberts' post inspires Krugman's most recent column on weather variability and climate. Here is the conclusion:
Will the current drought finally lead to serious climate action? History isn’t encouraging. The deniers will surely keep on denying, especially because conceding at this point that the science they’ve trashed was right all along would be to admit their own culpability for the looming disaster. And the public is all too likely to lose interest again the next time the die comes up white or blue.
But let’s hope that this time is different. For large-scale damage from climate change is no longer a disaster waiting to happen. It’s happening now.
The loaded die analogy: normal climate has two red (hot) sides, two white (normal) sides and two blue (cold sides). A climate change die has four red, one white and one blue.
