Cue flashback music...
On December 21, 2005, I wrote
By January 1, 2016 more than one major U.S. city will have a fleet (more than 10) of public vehicles--buses, or taxis, or garbage collection or police or whatever--powered by hydrogen. As I see it, the major hurdles with hydrogen powered vehicles are:
1) Developing a fuel cell that will be cheap enough to mass produceand sell. Given current levels of investment and the prospect of future oil price shocks, technological advances will make fuel cell production affordable in in the next decade. My evidence? None, just faith in markets.
2) Producing hydrogen. Initially, hydrogen production will be fossil fuel based. I know this sounds counterproductive, but its the reality. The cheapest way to produce hydrogen will be to use the cheapest energy sources. Right now that's fossil fuels. As energy producers get a better grasp on the technology, hydrogen production will eventually be converted to renewables (solar, nuclear).
3) Infrastructure. Obviously this is a big one. Gas stations on every corner, not a hydrogen station to be seen. That's why I predict the large city fleet vehicles will be first. They can refuel at a central location reducing the need for infrastructure. Eventually we'll see gas stations start to add hydrogen tanks and pumps.
Does this count?
Cue flash forward music to today's Columbus Dispatch
In just a few years, the U.S. government has shifted from an embrace of fuel-cell vehicles to a distinctly cold shoulder.
That's discouraging for the more than 100 Ohio companies involved with fuel-cell technology or hydrogen-fueled vehicles*.
"Globally, we are seeing widespread government and private support for fuel-cell technology, and it is important that we do not lose our competitive edge," said Bill Dawson, president and CEO of Nextech Materials, a Lewis Center company that makes the thin ceramic membranes that are a component of fuel-cell stacks.
In February, the Obama administration proposed a cut of $70 million, or 40 percent, to a hydrogen-technology program in the Department of Energy. The administration also proposed roughly $50 million in cuts for a fuel-cell program. This was a step back from the support George W. Bush had shown for the technology.
via www.dispatch.com
I still have time left on my prediction...right?
*What's next? Farmers get upset at suggestions of cuts to farm income support progr...oh, wait.
