Determining the size of the BP spill will be crucial because under a federal law passed in the wake of the Valdez disaster, oil companies pay penalties that are directly proportional to the amount of oil released into the water.*
Yet the size of the current disaster is far more difficult to calculate than previous spills, because no one knows for sure how much crude was contained in the reservoir thousands of feet below the water's surface, nor whether the oil has been spewing at a constant rate.
"Based on the history of past large spills, I am sure there will be differences of opinion on the exact amount that was spilled," says William J. Lehr, senior scientist in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Response and Restoration, and a member of the federal group estimating the amount of oil spilled in the Gulf. "We give the best scientific estimate we can, under tight time constraints and with the data available at the time."
via online.wsj.com
That can be said for most policy analyses and it is quite reasonable. Yet it won't stop the criticism on both sides.
*Later in the column:
The spillage total is critical because BP can be charged $1,100 to $4,300 a barrel spilled, under the Clean Water Act.
The amount spilled also informs the Natural Resource Damage Assessment, which will be used to determine how much BP will have to pay for environmental damage. A BP spokesman referred questions about potential fines to the government, saying the company is focused on recovery efforts.
