In its forecast for above-average hurricane activity, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has left itself plenty of wiggle room.
The agency provided a broad range Thursday in its prediction of how many significant storms will occur in the Atlantic this year, expecting anywhere from 14 to 23 "named storms." Even with that amount of latitude, the agency said there is a 30% chance that the number of storms will fall outside the estimated range.
It is possible that NOAA is keeping its estimates loose to avoid having egg on its face later: In the past nine years, NOAA's May storm-count predictions have proved accurate about 40% of the time. NOAA didn't respond to requests for comment. But climate scientists outside the agency note that forecasting hurricane frequency is extremely difficult, especially before the storm season gets under way in June.
via online.wsj.com
I'll continue to revise my estimate until Thanksgiving Day, 2010. At that point my forecast should be fairly accurate.
