My print column this week examines uncertainty in the U.S. government’s economic statistics. The margin of statistical error can be so great as to prevent economists from saying with confidence whether an economic indicator — such as new-home sales or unemployment rates — is rising or falling.
via blogs.wsj.com
This is required reading for all those who think that economists should have a crystal ball that allows predictions of the macroeconomic future that are accurate enough to avoid "great" (or even good) recessions. We aren't even sure what has happened in the past until significant effort has been focused on the historical data.
