The effect of GDP growth rates on for-hire fishing trips in the south Atlantic, U.S.

With annual data from NMFS and the BEA over the time-period 1981-2009, here is the OLS regression:

 +--------+--------------+----------------+--------+--------+----------+

|Variable| Coefficient  | Standard Error |t-ratio |P[|T|>t]| Mean of X|
+--------+--------------+----------------+--------+--------+----------+

 Constant|    13.4188537       .12654817   106.038   .0000

 GDPGR   |     .04857478       .02429373     1.999   .0561   2.82068966

 TIME       |    -.01252299       .00568097    -2.204   .0366   14.0000000

+--------+--------------+----------------+--------+--------+----------+

The dependent variable is natural log of the for-hire fishing trips (charter boats, head boats). The independent variables are the annual growth rate of GDP and a time trend.

Results indicate that each 1 percentage point change in the GDP growth rate leads to about a 5% change in trips. And, since 1981 trips have fallen by about 1% each year.

The trips time series is to the right. Here is the comma delimited data: Forhire time series.csv so that someone can run a more sophisticated model. Any improvement in my estimate in the next 2 hours gets a hearty slap on the back and "good job!"