In 2000, John and I submitted a report to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, get it?) entitled: The Economic Value of Marine Recreational Fishing in the Southeast United States. In the report, we used the fatally flawed Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (1997 data) to estimate the value of lost recreational angling trips in the Southeast U.S. by state for both the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.
In the report, we estimated that:
- the value of a lost recreational fishing trip due to loss of access to marine fishing from closure of access points in Louisiana in May or June is $8.77.
- the value of a lost recreational fishing trip due to loss of access to marine fishing from closure of access points along the entire Gulf Coast in May or June is $86.82.
In 2009, NOAA estimated there were 1,058,162 recreational fishing trips initiated in Louisiana in May and June and 5,698,922 recreational fishing trips initiated in May and June along the entire Gulf Coast.
Prematurely and irresponsibly assuming the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill shuts down access to recreational fishing in Louisiana for the next two months, the estimated value of lost recreational fishing access is $9,280,080 (1997 dollars).
If the recreational fishing access to the entire Gulf Coast is lost for two months, that estimate balloons to $494,780,408 (1997 dollars).
The Louisiana-only estimate is a fraction of the Gulf Coast estimate because the model we used allows for substitution to other access points if a single state is closed (Louisiana anglers can drive their boats to Mississippi with relatively little lost value). If the entire Gulf Coast is closed to recreational fishing access, the value is 54 times higher because 5 times more trips are lost and close substitutes are unavailable.
DISCLAIMER: I have no idea if access will be lost, for how long it will be lost, or where it will be lost. The only point of this post is to demonstrate numbers are out there, and they can be used to begin to estimate damages once more information is available. Once more information is available, I'm sure I could talk John into helping me estimate damages. For the right price, of course.
