China and the U.S. are apparently in a staring contest in Copenhagen over monitoring and enforcement of any agreement for CO2 reductions. China is refusing to allow international monitoring as a matter of principle:
He Yafei*, the Chinese vice foreign minister, said China’s laws would guarantee compliance.
“This is a matter of principle,” even if it scuttles the talks, he said in an interview with The Financial Times.
This begs the question, if China refuses to allow monitoring, could the U.S. go it alone? The short answer is yes, as long as the U.S. can* adjust the border price of imports for their carbon content.
“If China or any other country wants to be a full partner in global climate efforts, that country must commit to transparency and review of their emissions-cutting regime,” said Representative Edward J. Markey, Democrat of Massachusetts and a co-sponsor of the climate and energy bill that passed the House in June. “Without that commitment, other governments and industries, including those in America, will be hesitant to engage with those countries when they try to partner on global warming.”
And the Chinese refusal to accept verification measures could also lead to calls for punitive tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the United States. The House bill allows for the imposition of tariffs on goods from countries that do not constrain their carbon output. A group of 10 Democratic senators wrote to Mr. Obama two weeks ago warning that the Senate would not ratify any treaty that did not protect American industry from foreign competitors who do not have to meet global warming emissions limits.
...and, since the U.S. makes up roughly 30% of China's exports*** (the largest of any single country) the higher border prices would put pressure on China to blink.
That threat could, paradoxically, help drive the Chinese to cement a deal here, an American official said. “Their No. 1 motivation is to avoid border tariffs,” the official said.
*He said...teeheeheeheeheehee
**I've consulted my local WTO expert, and he thinks border price adjustments would be WTO legal in this case.
***And if Europe is added in, that's roughly 50% of China's exports.
