From the Numbers Guy blog:
My print column this week examines numbers surrounding the federal stimulus package and its effect on jobs. Before the stimulus act was passed, the White House projected that it would increase employment by 3.5 million jobs. Last week, even as unemployment figures were rising, the White House estimated that the act already had boosted employment by one million jobs. ...
What that actual impact will be may never be known. Christina Romer, chair of the White House economic council, said in an interview that differences between the levels of stimulus received by each state may make it possible to tease out the effects. “We might be able to say, ‘States that got more relief did better than states that got less,’ ” Romer said. “It’s one way to get results you can actually learn something from going forward.”
Now then, that second paragraph sounds like a natural experiment. Surely some real live research will emerge and we can debate this like academics (i.e., 6 year old bullies and crybabies) instead of letting the politicians have all the fun.
