I predict that we'll have H sub t-1 hurricanes in time t (+/- 1)

From the inbox:

THE NUMBERS GUY, by Carl Bialik
from The Wall Street Journal.
 
Climatologists who each year predict the number of hurricanes that will threaten the U.S. have a sorry track record. Yet their forecasts continue to garner headlines.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124096550135766317.html?mod=djemnumbers