From Inkstain:
Dan Yurman calculates the jobs he thinks would be created by expanding the federal loan guarantees for nuclear power:
The Federal loan guarantee program for construction of nuclear power plants, set by Congress at $18.5 billion, could if expanded to cover the entire fleet of 21 proposed new reactors, create nearly 80,000 construction jobs, and more than 17,000 permanent operations jobs over the next 10-15 years.
I rather think John Whitehead’s macroeconomic argument about green jobs applies here. There are jobs to be had creating the infrastructure necessary to supply our nation’s energy needs. If they are not created in providing that energy through nuclear power, they will be created in providing it with coal, or wind, or whatever. To the extent that more jobs are created by doing it with nuclear energy than with other approaches, that merely means nuclear energy is less efficient.
My analysis suggests we could maximize energy-related job creation by hiring a bunch of extreme athletes to pedal those silly bike machines you see in late night infomercials. Hook ‘em up to the grid. All the food they have to eat would also add farm sector employment. Win!
(OK, I’m being flip. Just as Whitehead argues with “green jobs,” there may very well be good reasons for pursuing an expansion of nuclear energy. But job creation should not be one of them.)
This is what I'd add:
Over 10-15 years the government spending created jobs will simply replace those in another sector of the economy. The new construction jobs will hire workers away from other construction projects increasing the wages of construction workers. The higher wages will reduce the quantity demanded of construction workers from the private sector.
Another offset will occur from the source of the federal funding. The higher taxes will reduce consumer demand for goods and services and reduce jobs in the consumer spending sector of the economy. If the government borrows the money, the jobs will be a net gain if the deficit is externally funded by China and others. However, this sort of deficit financing is unsustainable over the long term. At some point the debt to GDP ratio will rise to a level where foreigners will feel super nervous about loaning the U.S. government money. At that point interest rates spike (this is known as crowding out) and all heck breaks loose.
Finally, the permanent jobs will simply offset the job losses in other non-nuclear power plants.
