I finished reading the Hahn and Passell's background paper* on full speed ahead drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Continental Shelf. It is hard to disagree with the conclusion that the benefits of full speed ahead drilling would likely outweigh the costs ... in a big way. I especially liked the final paragraph:
The narrow lesson of this paper is that economics can help push political discussions related to the development of domestic oil resources beyond rhetoric. The broader lesson, we hope, is that economics can serve as a useful reality check, focusing policy makers on the issues most relevant to improving economic welfare.
In particular, the impact on gasoline prices of full speed ahead drilling is likely to be anywhere from nil to a 3% decrease in prices (i.e., $3/gal to $2.917/gal), but the domestic oil revenues (private and government) are potentially enormous.
*Hahn, Robert W. and Passell, Peter,The Economics of Allowing More Domestic Oil Drilling(September 9, 2008). Reg-Markets Center Working Paper No. 08-21
Available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1265728
