From Grist:
Wind- and solar-boosting folk are crossing their fingers that new Senate legislation will succeed in extending renewable-energy tax credits set to expire at the end of 2008. The Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act is framed as an economic boon: "If both houses of Congress don't pass a bill and the president doesn't sign it into law soon, we will start to see as much as $20 billion of anticipated investment in 2008 delayed or cancelled and more than 100,000 jobs lost," warns cosponsor Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.). The bill has bipartisan support, in large part because, unlike previous failed legislation, it would not seek to fund clean-energy incentives by removing tax credits for oil companies.
More than 100,000 jobs lost? Is that net jobs lost? As in the U.S. economy? Or gross jobs lost? Which may be offset by jobs gained in another sector?
Tired of me asking questions? Take the challenge below ...
My contention is that tax credits can increase employment in preferred sectors but this employment is taken from other sectors of the macroeconomy. Employment and unemployment is unaffected in the aggregate.
Here is the time trend of employment in the U.S. from the BLS's Current Employment Survey:
Are any of the dips caused by a lack of targeted environmental policy? I'll send a free "Drive Less! www.env-econ.net" bumper sticker to the first person who shows me empirical evidence that the U.S. loses jobs from expiration of renewable energy tax credits or some such policy using appropriate econometric methods and the 1946-2007 employment data (I'll send the spreadsheet if you don't want to hassle with the cut and paste):
Year,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Annual,
1946,34054,33472,34434,35147,35616,36052,36471,36961,37239,37430,37757,37751,
1947,37926,37957,38017,37933,38086,38284,38218,38439,38662,38849,38901,38973,
1948,39062,38922,39057,38726,39114,39296,39386,39384,39489,39421,39325,39140,
1949,38781,38607,38323,38282,38020,37783,37568,37636,37794,36980,37294,37564,
1950,37596,37372,37874,38282,38674,39062,39363,40000,40214,40463,40516,40541,
1951,40937,41195,41461,41405,41535,41568,41523,41489,41403,41432,41523,41620,
1952,41710,41872,41842,41954,41951,41574,41407,42204,42585,42782,43015,43229,
1953,43351,43542,43690,43662,43774,43788,43813,43733,43616,43478,43157,42959,
1954,42707,42598,42362,42371,42136,42050,41966,41933,41987,42044,42215,42374,
1955,42544,42721,43025,43287,43521,43770,43936,44089,44195,44313,44509,44673,
1956,44808,44955,45043,45099,45139,45216,44549,45181,45119,45262,45269,45346,
1957,45268,45452,45484,45537,45436,45364,45368,45371,45183,44997,44788,44539,
1958,44256,43744,43452,43158,43019,42986,43065,43221,43490,43454,43915,43988,
1959,44376,44571,44884,45178,45396,45535,45630,45156,45189,45094,45351,45807,
1960,45967,46187,45933,46278,46040,45915,45861,45800,45734,45642,45446,45146,
1961,45119,44969,45051,44997,45119,45289,45400,45535,45591,45716,45931,46035,
1962,46040,46309,46375,46679,46668,46644,46720,46775,46888,46927,46910,46901,
1963,46912,47000,47077,47316,47328,47356,47461,47542,47661,47805,47771,47863,
1964,47925,48171,48287,48279,48419,48552,48735,48888,49117,48949,49338,49523,
1965,49646,49826,49993,50207,50398,50562,50762,50957,51152,51340,51561,51822,
1966,51987,52185,52499,52677,52890,53208,53327,53501,53582,53727,53816,53943,
1967,54092,54074,54133,54032,54144,54216,54343,54552,54540,54583,55008,55165,
1968,55011,55395,55454,55677,55747,55917,56108,56286,56420,56619,56878,57100,
1969,57229,57474,57677,57827,58044,58277,58390,58632,58539,58689,58640,58763,
1970,58680,58784,58850,58643,58454,58361,58358,58221,58208,57726,57579,57945,
1971,57988,57928,57951,58092,58277,58245,58305,58327,58552,58527,58696,58918,
1972,59179,59354,59616,59805,60051,60355,60227,60607,60693,61066,61322,61586,
1973,61930,62306,62541,62679,62829,63014,63046,63262,63389,63628,63874,63965,
1974,64014,64118,64143,64193,64326,64363,64346,64291,64192,64143,63727,63098,
1975,62673,62172,61895,61668,61796,61735,61907,62284,62408,62635,62776,63071,
1976,63537,63836,64062,64308,64340,64413,64553,64697,64921,64877,65164,65373,
1977,65636,65931,66341,66655,66957,67281,67537,67746,68129,68331,68658,68870,
1978,68984,69277,69730,70366,70675,71099,71304,71590,71799,72096,72497,72763,
1979,72874,73107,73524,73441,73800,74063,74064,74067,74195,74344,74401,74489,
1980,74599,74653,74695,74263,73961,73654,73414,73682,73875,74099,74350,74563,
1981,74671,74752,74910,75016,75088,75323,75419,75448,75440,75302,75084,74811,
1982,74516,74540,74398,74131,74093,73837,73620,73422,73248,72938,72793,72775,
1983,72958,72899,73071,73362,73624,73987,74414,74101,75189,75516,75857,76202,
1984,76647,77111,77381,77699,77979,78334,78601,78790,79070,79337,79649,79805,
1985,80017,80128,80428,80588,80818,80939,81006,81200,81385,81556,81745,81893,
1986,81995,82058,82155,82333,82433,82351,82669,82761,82997,83125,83275,83463,
1987,83610,83851,84072,84365,84589,84748,85058,85216,85482,85840,86041,86287,
1988,86363,86791,87009,87249,87447,87776,88020,88091,88341,88573,88836,89135,
1989,89359,89579,89761,89916,89998,90079,90125,90088,90299,90404,90657,90734,
1990,91000,91219,91317,91274,91201,91261,91215,91110,91048,90881,90730,90652,
1991,90527,90213,90047,89839,89698,89722,89638,89684,89743,89705,89613,89622,
1992,89624,89557,89581,89715,89827,89878,89894,89969,90058,90236,90363,90537,
1993,90824,91065,91009,91287,91539,91694,91898,92091,92319,92595,92830,93097,
1994,93327,93525,93947,94267,94557,94862,95198,95493,95816,96016,96416,96669,
1995,96981,97180,97382,97537,97537,97741,97828,98107,98351,98464,98613,98741,
1996,98738,99137,99353,99531,99840,100119,100332,100571,100728,100984,101269,101430,
1997,101638,101934,102236,102532,102790,102984,103241,103292,103738,104018,104298,104592,
1998,104858,105031,105169,105422,105764,105972,106040,106363,106555,106732,106973,107280,
1999,107396,107746,107828,108135,108356,108579,108803,108959,109132,109487,109742,109992,
2000,110210,110303,110641,110858,110738,110952,111135,111168,111392,111373,111587,111681,
2001,111634,111624,111555,111227,111146,110910,110737,110544,110276,109918,109575,109368,
2002,109214,109054,108989,108892,108814,108824,108732,108671,108659,108772,108758,108595,
2003,108640,108484,108286,108252,108274,108233,108231,108266,108421,108570,108611,108724,
2004,108879,108898,109189,109433,109729,109840,109890,109973,110144,110466,110506,110637,
2005,110732,110941,111066,111372,111538,111816,112089,112292,112418,112541,112864,112996,
2006,113263,113511,113748,113882,113898,113996,114180,114353,114472,114539,114710,114899,
2007,115005,115006,115167,115195,115332,115423,115512,115544,115610,115715,115759,115745,
