Following up on John's post this morning, the 2008 hurricane forecasts are out...PANIC! or not:
Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.
Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months before the June-November season begins.
The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.
"Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two."
...and then the article has this gem of incite:
Hmmm...do you think a hurricane forecaster would get more attention for consistently overestimating or consistently underestimating the strength of the season? My bet is on overestimating. Better to say "See I warned you," rather than "Oops, my bad."
*I moved offices recently, and in the clean out, I found my Bartlett's Familiar Quotations book. Any guesses as to the original [topic] and author? A free env-econ "Drive Less!" sticker to the first correct guess. No googling.
