Tim sent me the third link below ("fudged") and I've been sitting on it until the guy with the work pillow removed it from my face. And now, I've been scooped by Craig Newmark at the people's university (NCSU):
We've just ended another hurricane season and the forecasts were pretty lousy:
Two years ago, way under. Last year, way over. This year, still not right.
(My own institution's forecast wasn't better.)
And there's a possibility that the number of storms are being fudged.
Two observations.
1. It's not just economists who have trouble forecasting.
2. Yogi Berra spoke the truth when he (allegedly) observed, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
Suppose you made macroeconomic forecasts and also were in charge of dating recessions. Maybe your recession dating activity might be dependent on your own forecasts? Ya think? It's kind of like point shaving, without the colorful characters.
