On December 14, 2005, I wrote:
Using EIA monthly real oil prices from 1974 through October of this year, I predict oil prices will be either $81.51/barrel or $91.15/barrel in December of 2025.
That was written in response to this December 13, 2005 prediction from the Energy Information Agency:
...oil prices will remain in the mid-$40 range or higher in coming years and average $54 a barrel by 2025.
The price of oil rose to a new record above $96 a barrel Thursday after a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles raised concerns about supplies for coming winter demand. Other energy futures also gained.
In fairness to myself, my prediction was made to prove just how bad we are at prediciting oil prices. At the time, I wrote:
How confident am I in this projection. I predict I have a 100% chance of being wrong--the same chance the EIA projections have. I also predict I am within +/- a lot of being right. In other words, no one knows what the price will be, but the EIA took a lot of time to come up with their projection and I did mine in 1/2 an hour. I still think I have as much of a chance of being right as they do. Call me arrogant. Did I just guarantee I will never get EIA funding for my research?
So I guess I was really right by being wrong?
