John's always had a fondness for Dr. William Gray, the recently retired hurricane forecaster from Colorado State University. Dr. Gray's forecasts were frequently wrong but always attention grabbing. Looks like his successor Phillip Klotzbach is taking up where Dr. Gray left off:
Colorado State University forecaster Phillip Klotzbach said at the conference there was a 49 percent chance that a hurricane packing winds of 111 miles per hour or higher would hit the Gulf Coast. The average chance for a major hurricane to hit the region is 30 percent, he said.
"The probabilities for this year are well above average," Klotzbach said. "The idea is, with a more active season, there is a much higher possibility of landfall."
So if a major hurricane hits the Gulf coast, Klotzbach can say "See I warned you." If a major hurricane doesn't hit then he can say, "Well there was a less than 50% chance it would happen." How can he be wrong?
I predict these predictions are predictably unpredictable.
