In yesterday's NYTimes, peak oilers are described as "largely ... a small band of retired petroleum geologists and some members of Congress" (ouch) as their argument is thoroughly questioned:
Within the last decade, technology advances have made it possible to unlock more oil from old fields, and, at the same time, higher oil prices have made it economical for companies to go after reserves that are harder to reach. With plenty of oil still left in familiar locations, forecasts that the world’s reserves are drying out have given way to predictions that more oil can be found than ever before.
As I yawn I'm thinking this is just as predicted from the economics of nonrenewable resources. Prices rise over time, incentives for exploration and discovery increase, incentives for developing nonrenewables increase (although the oil execs in the article poo-poo the notion that oil will be replaced, as if we find them credible on that issue).
The full quote describing peak oil is this:
There is still a minority view ... that oil production has peaked, but the theory has been fading.
...
Some forecasters, studying data on how much oil is used each year and how much is still believed to be in the ground, have argued that at some point by 2010, global oil production will peak — if it has not already — and begin to fall. That drop would usher in an uncertain era of shortages, price spikes and economic decline.
But:
The oil industry is well known for seeking out new sources of fossil fuel in far-flung places, from the icy plains of Siberia to the deep waters off West Africa. But now the quest for new discoveries is taking place alongside a much less exotic search that is crucial to the world’s energy supplies. Oil companies are returning to old or mature fields partly because there are few virgin places left to explore, and, of those, few are open to investors.
...
Many oil executives say that these so-called peak-oil theorists fail to take into account the way that sophisticated technology, combined with higher prices that make searches for new oil more affordable, are opening up opportunities to develop supplies. As the industry improves its ability to draw new life from old wells and expands its forays into ever-deeper corners of the globe, it is providing a strong rebuttal in the long-running debate over when the world might run out of oil.
Typically, oil companies can only produce one barrel for every three they find. Two usually are left behind, either because they are too hard to pump out or because it would be too expensive to do so. Going after these neglected resources, energy experts say, represents a tremendous opportunity.
The article also touches on the fact that environmentalists should cheering the evidence against peak oil -- if oil is plentiful and cheap there is little reason to expand supplies by drilling in ANWR and other pristine places.
