A few years ago, feeling the need to learn something about coastal processes, I read Cornelia Dean's Against the Tide, instead of the review. Here is my review: great book -- even economists with a non-science undergraduate degree can understand it. Now I always try to read her NYTimes columns, even though they usually require more concentration that usual. And here is a good one: Next Victim of Warming: Beaches [$$$]*.
*Update: as a "Times Select" subscriber ($14 or so a year) I get access to this article. I decided to check and see how much it would cost to "republish to a non-profit internet site." Cost = $900. And that is adjusted for inflation! Whoa, that represents half a day's salary for me!
Here is the opening:
When scientists consider the possible effects of global warming, there is a lot they don't know. But they can say one thing for sure: sea levels will rise.
This rising water will be felt along the artificially maintained beaches of New Jersey, in the vanishing marshes of Louisiana, even on the ocean bluffs of California. According to a 2000 report by the Heinz Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, at least a quarter of the houses within 500 feet of the United States coast may be lost to rising seas by 2060. There were 350,000 of these houses when the report was written, but today there are far more.
The kicker:
And the remedies are not attractive, to say the least. Few coastal residents want to see their towns walled off and surrounded by water. And few want to elevate their houses by 20 feet or more, as flooding experts are beginning to recommend in some coastal areas. The approach favored by many scientists, a gradual retreat from the coast, is a perennial nonstarter among real estate interests and their political allies.
"Socioeconomically, politically, it's an ugly mess," Dr. Howd said.
...
Undeveloped beaches and wetlands deal with encroaching seas by shifting to higher elevations inland. The barrier islands migrate, in effect, as storms send sand washing over them from ocean to lagoon. The ocean side erodes, but sand piles up on the back side.
... But if a sea wall or other infrastructure is in the way, the island is pinned down. Sand that would wash over is blocked as the island erodes. In time, rising water meets the wall and drowns the beach. Meanwhile, storm waves scour the wall's base and erode the underwater beach slope. "Eventually the sea wall collapses because the situation is so extreme."
Up to now, in many places, beach nourishment is the most efficient policy. But good sand is getter harder and harder to find, raising the costs and making it tough for beach towns to afford it. In response to beach erosion that actually threatens property, an alternative is beach hardening: sea walls, groins and other engineering marvels (except in NC ... at least up to now, beach hardening is prohibited for the most part). Sea walls, etc, eventually eliminate the public use of the beach. Given the above described "ugly mess," don't look for a good alternative to sea walls to be found.
My prediction: sometime after I'm long gone, much of the U.S. coast will be walled off. Beach trips will be something that you do at the lake.
