I received an email from the NC Conservation Network day before yesterday:
Typical monthly utility bill in North Carolina this winter: $150
2004 Profits for Progress Energy: $690,000,000
2004 Profits for Duke Power: $1,500,000,000
Amount of taxpayer money Congress has allocated to give to power companies that build new nuclear plants: $2,000,000,000
Amount of time the Triangle would be uninhabitable if there were a Chernobyl-like accident at the Shearon Harris nuclear plant: 10,000 years
The chance to tell your legislators to focus on energy efficiency instead of new polluting power plants: Priceless
Well done, but hey, my sophisticated analysis* says that the expected amount of time that the Triangle (Durham, Raleigh and Apple Chill) would be uninhabitable if there were a Chernobyl-like accident at the Shearon Harris nuclear, considering the probability that there is a Chernobyl-like accident, is only 1.667 years.
Not so bad, huh?
Actually the expected time is much less since the probability from my sophisticated analysis applies to all nucular power plants in the U.S.
So, if you are risk neutral (i.e., not risk averse ... a poor assumption in this case, I think), your decision about whether to support or oppose a nuclear power plant in the Triangle should be based on the following expectation of reality. Nuclear accident, I move to the beach for a few weeks, the place gets cleaned up, I move back.
A bit flippant? yes
Fueled by a couple of beers? yes
Dead on accurate? Maybe
Based on a faulty assumption (as noted above)? Probably ... But still, that distortionary 10,000 year thing rankles.
This post: priceless
TGIF
*Actually, unsophisticated.
