The WSJ reports on a dust-up at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (Hurricane debate ...):
The 2,000-plus scientists at this week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society had plenty to talk about, from last year's droughts to flash floods and wildfires. But the biggest question at the meeting in Atlanta -- why last hurricane season was the worst since recordkeeping began 151 years ago -- was almost too hot to handle.
WSJ continued:
William Gray, America's most prominent hurricane scientist and an ardent foe of the belief that global warming has worsened hurricanes, was supposed to join a panel discussing the storms. So was Greg Holland of the National Center on Atmospheric Research -- who disagrees with Dr. Gray. But the organizers withdrew the invitations after deciding the dispute had grown so nasty it was too risky to put the two in the same room.
The short story is that Dr. Gray and everyone in NOAA don't think that global warming is causing hurricanes to become more intense. All the other weather people, lead by Dr. Holland, think it is. Papers and e-mails are flying back and forth, people are being called names, etc. This is almost as fun as the debate over the contingent valuation method after the Exxon Valdez oil spill.
There I was, in Atlanta for the AMS meeting, and I missed the big fight!
P.S. Check out the "numbers guy" link in the right column (actually, here it is, and it is a freebie). He says that, pretty much, Dr Gray's and other seasonal forecasts are no better than using the historical average.
