After my willingness to go on record to predict future oil prices (here), John triple-dog-dared* me to put my forecasting abilities to the test against the Wall Street Journal panel of "experts" who forecast GDP (click on thumbnail). Because my methods involve differential equations, neural networks, bayesian analysis, simulations and a lot of guessing, I won't go into the gory details here. Instead here are my predictions of the % change in GDP for the next 4 quarters**, starting with 2005 q4:
4.3%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%.
If I'm right, or at least better than the "experts," I will sell my secrets in a nationally televised infomercial.
And yes, I am fully aware that this has nothing to do with the environment.
*In the spirit of the holiday season, note the gross breach of etiquette John committed by skipping directly to the triple-dog-dare--the coup de grace of all dares.
**These are constant dollar percent changes. That is, the % change after GDP is corrected for inflation.
