CNN.com has a video story on Honda's hydrogen car program. If you want to see one in action, you can watch the video here--unfortunately you have to put up with an E-Trade commercial first. In the video, Joe Romm--author of The Hype about Hydrogen--restates his claim that hydrogen vehicles won't be mass produced for at least another 20 years and probably longer. Well, here's my prediction...
By January 1, 2016 more than one major U.S. city will have a fleet (more than 10) of public vehicles--buses, or taxis, or garbage collection or police or whatever--powered by hydrogen. As I see it, the major hurdles with hydrogen powered vehicles are:
1) Developing a fuel cell that will be cheap enough to mass produceand sell. Given current levels of investment and the prospect of future oil price shocks, technological advances will make fuel cell production affordable in in the next decade. My evidence? None, just faith in markets.
2) Producing hydrogen. Initially, hydrogen production will be fossil fuel based. I know this sounds counterproductive, but its the reality. The cheapest way to produce hydrogen will be to use the cheapest energy sources. Right now that's fossil fuels. As energy producers get a better grasp on the technology, hydrogen production will eventually be converted to renewables (solar, nuclear).
3) Infrastructure. Obviously this is a big one. Gas stations on every corner, not a hydrogen station to be seen. That's why I predict the large city fleet vehicles will be first. They can refuel at a central location reducing the need for infrastructure. Eventually we'll see gas stations start to add hydrogen tanks and pumps.
I know, none of this is groundbreaking or original. I'm confident there is money to be made out there in hydrogen. So much so, I'm willing to put up $5 for the first (and only the first) person to take me up on it. That's how confident I am in the power of greed to promote technological change.
