This morning in Anchorage at the AFS meetings I'll be attending the Connections Between Economic Growth and Fisheries Conservation symposium. There is currently a debate in the AFS about economic growth and fisheries conservation. The Water Quality Section (no website to link to) has proposed to the AFS that it adopt a policy statement advocating a steady state economy. The Resource Policy committee is considered the request and decided to develop a background paper. The AFS Governing Board unanimously approved the recommendation.
By the way, I am opposed to a steady state economy. Here is an earlier post at Hypothetical Bias that points to two versions of a steady-state essay (written by WQ section members) and two versions of a reply (written by Socioeconomics Section members myself, Doug Lipton, Frank Lupi and Rob Southwick). I heard that I'll be approached about serving on the committee that must hash out some sort of background paper on the issue. Here's a start:
In short, the steady state folks over at the WQ section have taken an official position that macroeconomic growth kills fish so we need to shut down growth. The folks in the socioeconomics section say that microeconomic activity kills fish so we need fisheries management and land use policies to protect fish (so that net benefits are maximized and all that nonsense). Note that this is not an official position of the section.
What does a steady state economy mean for you?
First, check out the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy's webpage. It's purpose:
Economic growth is simply an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services. It entails increasing population, per capita consumption, or both. Slowly but surely, economic growth has become a primary threat to our national security, the environment, and future generations. Yet economic growth is the highest priority in the domestic policy arena! Our students and citizens are continually told that there is no limit to economic growth, in defiance of ecological principles and basic physics.
Since GDP is the product of GDP per capita (a measure of a country's standard of living) and population (n), GDP = (GDP/n) x n, increases in GDP are due to increases in one or both of these factors. In order to keep GDP constant in a steady state economy, the standard of living or population must remain constant.
We can achieve a steady state economy by holding constant population or the standard of living. In order to increase the standard of living we must reduce population. Forget about adopting population controls (e.g., net-zero immigration, birth control to limit kids to 2 per couple [are you ready to tax the number of kids or, more realistically, getting rid of kids subsidies?]), I don't think it will happen. So, in order to maintain GDP at $12 trillion, per capita GDP must fall.
As an exercise let's see the impact of this policy over time. With population data from the U.S. Census and GDP data from the BEA, it is easy to calculate per capita GDP. Assuming a 1% rate of population growth, per capita GDP, $41,654 in 2005, will fall to $38,085, $34,478, $31,213, $28,256, and $25,580 in 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 years [1]. Of course, there will be lots of little fishies swimming around that will compensate us for the lost income. Our kids and grandkids will be much wealthier, in a full income sense, than we.
Or will they? One unintended consequence of a steady-state is that we all start subsistence fishing, as a response to being less well off, and the resource is depleted faster than before.
[1] Here are the calculations (with GDP fixed at $12.373 trillion):
| Year | n | GDP/n | |
| 1 | 2005 | 297,048,135 | 41,654 |
| 2 | 2006 | 300,018,616 | 41,241 |
| 3 | 2007 | 303,018,803 | 40,833 |
| 4 | 2008 | 306,048,991 | 40,428 |
| 5 | 2009 | 309,109,480 | 40,028 |
| 6 | 2010 | 312,200,575 | 39,632 |
| 7 | 2011 | 315,322,581 | 39,239 |
| 8 | 2012 | 318,475,807 | 38,851 |
| 9 | 2013 | 321,660,565 | 38,466 |
| 10 | 2014 | 324,877,171 | 38,085 |
| 11 | 2015 | 328,125,942 | 37,708 |
| 12 | 2016 | 331,407,202 | 37,335 |
| 13 | 2017 | 334,721,274 | 36,965 |
| 14 | 2018 | 338,068,486 | 36,599 |
| 15 | 2019 | 341,449,171 | 36,237 |
| 16 | 2020 | 344,863,663 | 35,878 |
| 17 | 2021 | 348,312,300 | 35,523 |
| 18 | 2022 | 351,795,423 | 35,171 |
| 19 | 2023 | 355,313,377 | 34,823 |
| 20 | 2024 | 358,866,511 | 34,478 |
| 21 | 2025 | 362,455,176 | 34,137 |
| 22 | 2026 | 366,079,727 | 33,799 |
| 23 | 2027 | 369,740,525 | 33,464 |
| 24 | 2028 | 373,437,930 | 33,133 |
| 25 | 2029 | 377,172,309 | 32,805 |
| 26 | 2030 | 380,944,032 | 32,480 |
| 27 | 2031 | 384,753,473 | 32,159 |
| 28 | 2032 | 388,601,007 | 31,840 |
| 29 | 2033 | 392,487,018 | 31,525 |
| 30 | 2034 | 396,411,888 | 31,213 |
| 31 | 2035 | 400,376,007 | 30,904 |
| 32 | 2036 | 404,379,767 | 30,598 |
| 33 | 2037 | 408,423,564 | 30,295 |
| 34 | 2038 | 412,507,800 | 29,995 |
| 35 | 2039 | 416,632,878 | 29,698 |
| 36 | 2040 | 420,799,207 | 29,404 |
| 37 | 2041 | 425,007,199 | 29,113 |
| 38 | 2042 | 429,257,271 | 28,824 |
| 39 | 2043 | 433,549,843 | 28,539 |
| 40 | 2044 | 437,885,342 | 28,256 |
| 41 | 2045 | 442,264,195 | 27,977 |
| 42 | 2046 | 446,686,837 | 27,700 |
| 43 | 2047 | 451,153,706 | 27,425 |
| 44 | 2048 | 455,665,243 | 27,154 |
| 45 | 2049 | 460,221,895 | 26,885 |
| 46 | 2050 | 464,824,114 | 26,619 |
| 47 | 2051 | 469,472,355 | 26,355 |
| 48 | 2052 | 474,167,079 | 26,094 |
| 49 | 2053 | 478,908,750 | 25,836 |
| 50 | 2054 | 483,697,837 | 25,580 |
