Cherry picking on the weekend. From Marginal Revolution:
Inspired by Robin Hanson's work on betting markets, James Annan, a climate scientist, has been trying to get skeptics of global warming to put up or shut up, mostly with no success on either front. A number of prominent skeptics refused to bet (perhaps having learnt from Paul Ehrlich's embarassment) or offered to bet only at very high odds in their favor (i.e. implicitly admitting that they thought the probability of global warming was high). The failure to bet is telling and a nice reminder that even markets with no trades can tell you things of importance!
Finally, however, Annan has found some takers. ...
Read the rest here.
The resulting bet is for a payoff of $10,000 in 2018. If a risk free investment averages 3% for the next 13 years, the loser needs to put away $6809 today in order to cover the bet.
