Jared Walczak at the Tax Foundation:
On November 1st, New Jersey residents will start paying considerably higher gas taxes, with the rate rising from 14.5 to 37.5 cents per gallon (cpg) as part of a broader tax deal negotiated between Governor Chris Christie (R) and Democratic leadership in the state legislature. ... The gas tax hike is paired with a sales tax rate reduction, an increase in the earned income tax credit and the retirement tax exemption, and the phase-out of the estate tax.
Right now, New Jersey has the second-lowest motor fuel tax in the nation (14.5 cpg). Only oil-rich Alaska is lower, at 12.25 cpg. In just over a week, it will have the seventh highest, just a hair under Connecticut’s 37.51 cpg. The rate, however, has the potential to fluctuate over the years, based not on gasoline costs or even inflation indexing, but rather on consumption. The law caps the revenue from the gas tax increase at the amount that 23 cents (or 12.85 percent per gallon) would have produced during the 2016 fiscal year. If consumption rises, the rate will decline slightly. If consumption falls, it will rise. Thus, the tax will bring in a consistent $1.23 billion in new revenue each year, with rates adjusting to keep collections constant.
Gas taxes can be relatively good taxes, particularly when the revenue they raise is dedicated to transportation infrastructure, as the tax then represents something approaching a user-pays model. There is certainly a strong argument for funding roads and bridges using gas taxes as opposed to relying on general revenue, and, therefore, for ensuring that gas tax revenue actually flows to transportation projects. On that score, New Jersey voters will have the opportunity to decide this November whether to dedicate all money from the gas tax exclusively to transportation projects.
As offsets to the gas tax increase, the recently enacted tax package also raises the amount of retirement and pension income that is excluded from income taxation. Currently, married couples filing jointly do not owe income tax on the first $20,000 a year in retirement income. This threshold is now set to increase by $20,000 a year through 2020, after which it will continue to stand at $100,000. Single taxpayers will see the exemption rise from $15,000 to $75,000 over that period. Coupled with a veterans’ exclusion, this will result in a $83 million to $113 million tax reduction in fiscal year 2018, rising to $110 million to 157 million by fiscal year 2022.
The state’s earned income tax credit, which currently stands at 30 percent of the federal level, will increase to 35 percent, at a cost of $70.5 million per year by fiscal year 2022. The state sales tax, meanwhile, will decrease from 7 percent to 6.875 percent on January 1, 2017, and decline further to 6.625 percent a year thereafter, a tax cut of $655 million a year by fiscal year 2022.
Last but not least, the tax reform package phases out New Jersey’s estate tax over two years, by raising the exclusion from $675,000 to $2 million as of January 1, 2017, and then repealing the estate tax outright as of January 1, 2018 (a tax cut of $562 million a year by fiscal year 2022). The state will continue to impose an inheritance tax; it is currently one of only two states to impose both an estate and an inheritance tax, which has a particularly strong adverse effect on family-owned businesses.
Between fiscal years 2017 and 2022, the tax package will result in an estimated $800 million to $1 billion in additional taxes, though the tax package represents a tax cut in aggregate in the out years. In fiscal year 2017, the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services estimates that the tax cut components of the plan will bring in $544.4 million in additional revenue, as few of the offsets will have phased in. By fiscal year 2019, the tax cut component will reduce revenues by $1.07 to $1.11 billion per year, while the increase in the gas tax will bring in $1.23 billion, for a slight revenue boost. In subsequent years, however, the cuts will be larger than the new gas tax revenue. By fiscal year 2022, the tax cuts will total an estimated $1.40 to $1.44 billion, above the consistent $1.23 billion brought in by the gas tax increase, resulting in a modest revenue reduction.
By my calculations, this is actually a tax cut. Using "math" I summed the revenue changes from 2017-2022 and find that tax revenues rise by $800 million to $996 million. Overall tax revenue will become negative (i.e., a tax cut) sometime between 2026 and 2028 (later if we use a positive discount rate ... e.g., sometime between 2028 and 2032 at a 5% discount rate).
And, in case you are wondering if "the path to climate action is through the Republican Party":
The tax increase hasn’t even gone into effect yet and already, two Republican state senators have filed legislation to repeal the deal.