... Last week on Twitter, I publicly offered to bet at 2:1 odds that the global warming pause will continue for another 15 years.
Yoram Bauman has nobly accepted my offer. Indeed, he offers better terms than I requested: 3:1 odds, and I win if (according to according to ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series) the average global annual land + ocean temperature increase between 2014 and 2028 inclusive is less than or equal to +.05 C.
My main question: Do Bauman's terms raise any red flags? In particular, does anyone have any problem with his suggested data source?
Otherwise, I propose only cosmetic changes:
1. Since we already have some data from 2014, the bet should run from 2015 to 2029.
2. Yoram proposed Wheat and Chessboard stakes, but I prefer to simply bet my nominal $333.33 against his nominal $1000.
3. If ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series stops publishing data during this period, we call the bet off. Alternately, Yoram can propose back-up data sources, and we only call the bet off if they all stop publishing data.
My main reservation is the past reluctance of global warming skeptics to bet. But after a 15-year pause that was not widely predicted in advance (also known as "predicted"), I'm ready to take my chances.
Here's some background to this rivalry (Response to Bryan Caplan’s review of Cartoon Climate Change):
Thanks to Bryan Caplan for his review of my Cartoon Introduction to Climate Change, and double thanks if he cross-posts this response on his blog (although it may mean I have to tweak my jokes about how I’ve been banned by a libertarian blog). [Update: he did!]
As with most academics, Bryan keeps his words of praise to a minimum and instead focuses on criticisms. ...
Make sure you have a sandwich before you read the back and forth.