Interest in natural gas embedded in Ohio shale shifted from talk to action in a big way in recent months.
Of the 45 horizontal-drilling permits that have been issued for Ohio’s Utica shale formation, more than half were issued since July. It’s the latest sign of the state’s boom in oil and gas exploration.
...Several companies and industry groups have issued forecasts that suggest exploration of the Utica shale could have a major impact on the state’s economy. The Ohio Oil and Gas Association said it expects the state to gain $14 billion in income and 200,000 jobs by 2015. Chesapeake Energy says its holdings alone could be worth $20 billion.
Some rough numbers and bad analysis to point out some of the problems with jobs numbers: Ohio's unemployment rate is hovering right around 9%. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Ohio's population is about 11.5 million. About 37.4% of that number are either under 18 or over 65, so that means the working age population of Ohio is roughly 7.2 million people (assuming all those between 18 and 65 years old want jobs). Of those 7.2 million, 648,000 are unemployed. With 200,000 jobs by 2015, 31% of Ohio's unemployed will be employed. So if shale jobs estimates are accurate, we should see Ohio's unemployment rate fall by 2.8 percentage points--from 9% to 6.2% from shale development alone.
Anybody buying that?
Didn't think so.