From the inbox: The Energy Information Administration (EIA), an independent statistical and analytical agency in the U. S. Department of Energy, released it's Flash Estimate of "U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Sources for the year 2007," on May 20, 2008, in HTML format. ... From the website: Total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 were 1.5 percent below the 2005 total—the first annual drop since 2001 and only the third since 1990. The total emissions reduction, from 7,181.4 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2005 to 7,075.6 MMTCO2e in 2006, was largely a result of reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. ... U.S. carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 were ... below their 2005 level ... due to favorable weather conditions; higher energy prices; a decline in the carbon intensity of electric power generation that resulted from increased use of natural gas, the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel; and greater reliance on non-fossil energy sources. Emphasis: Higher energy prices led to a reduction in GHG emissions in 2006. Forecast: Even higher energy prices in 2007 will lead to a further reduction in GHG emissions in 2007. Extension: Economic incentive-based policy, such as a carbon tax or cap-and-trade (with or without auctions), will lead to higher energy prices and even more reductions in GHG emissions in the future.
Update: This is awesome! The EIA email sent me to last year's webpage instead of this year's (see comments below), I make a prediction for 2007 which turns out totally wrong based on 2007 data (which the EIA should have sent me to)!
Damn you EIA!
Here is the correct link:
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Grew by 1.6 Percent in 2007
Factors that influenced growth include:
- 2.2 percent increase in GDP
- Heating degree-days were up by 6.7 percent over 2006
- Cooling degree-days were up by 2.6 percent over 2006
- More energy was needed for both heating and cooling compared to 2006
Power Sector electricity generation was up by 2.5 percent
- Emissions were up by 3.0 percent indicating a higher carbon intensity of generation in 2007 compared to 2006
Here is my forecast: Low real GDP growth and higher energy prices will lead to negative growth of GHG emissions in 2008.
Extension: Economic incentive-based policy, such as a carbon tax or cap-and-trade (with or without auctions), will lead to higher energy prices and even more reductions in GHG emissions in the future.