I took the "lost green jobs challenge"

Mike Giberson at Knowledge Problem provides some data to estimate the effect of lost wind energy tax credits on employment. My dependent variable is the unemployment rate from 1989 to 2007. Growth in the percentage change in GDP and growth2 is its square. Wind is the decrease in "installed wind capacity" for 1999 (93%), 2001 (73%) and and 2003 (77%). The regression model finds that the unemployment rate decreases with the economic growth rate (at an increasing rate) and each % decrease in installed wind capacity drops the unemployment rate by .016 -- although this effect is only significant at the 88.4% level (less than conventional standards) [R-squared = .353]. I might be encouraged to pursue this result and argue for green power subsidies based on macroeconomics, but before that, I need to fill in the data for the wind variable. What are the increases in "installed wind capacity" for the other years in the data series.

Don't get me wrong. I think that subsidies for green power are likely justified based on microeconomics arguments (i.e., benefits greater than costs). I don't think that green power has much if any macroeconomic impact.

Comments

[Brian Miles]

Could you explain what you mean by "installed wind capacity", and what it means for this capacity to decrease?

[John Whitehead]

I have absolutely no friggin' idea.