Green jobs rhetoric: curiouser and curiouser

From Grist:

Wind- and solar-boosting folk are crossing their fingers that new Senate legislation will succeed in extending renewable-energy tax credits set to expire at the end of 2008. The Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act is framed as an economic boon: "If both houses of Congress don't pass a bill and the president doesn't sign it into law soon, we will start to see as much as $20 billion of anticipated investment in 2008 delayed or cancelled and more than 100,000 jobs lost," warns cosponsor Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.). The bill has bipartisan support, in large part because, unlike previous failed legislation, it would not seek to fund clean-energy incentives by removing tax credits for oil companies.

More than 100,000 jobs lost? Is that net jobs lost? As in the U.S. economy? Or gross jobs lost? Which may be offset by jobs gained in another sector?

Tired of me asking questions? Take the challenge below ...

My contention is that tax credits can increase employment in preferred sectors but this employment is taken from other sectors of the macroeconomy. Employment and unemployment is unaffected in the aggregate.

Here is the time trend of employment in the U.S. from the BLS's Current Employment Survey:

Are any of the dips caused by a lack of targeted environmental policy? I'll send a free "Drive Less! www.env-econ.net" bumper sticker to the first person who shows me empirical evidence that the U.S. loses jobs from expiration of renewable energy tax credits or some such policy using appropriate econometric methods and the 1946-2007 employment data (I'll send the spreadsheet if you don't want to hassle with the cut and paste):

Year,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep,Oct,Nov,Dec,Annual,
1946,34054,33472,34434,35147,35616,36052,36471,36961,37239,37430,37757,37751, 
1947,37926,37957,38017,37933,38086,38284,38218,38439,38662,38849,38901,38973, 
1948,39062,38922,39057,38726,39114,39296,39386,39384,39489,39421,39325,39140, 
1949,38781,38607,38323,38282,38020,37783,37568,37636,37794,36980,37294,37564, 
1950,37596,37372,37874,38282,38674,39062,39363,40000,40214,40463,40516,40541, 
1951,40937,41195,41461,41405,41535,41568,41523,41489,41403,41432,41523,41620, 
1952,41710,41872,41842,41954,41951,41574,41407,42204,42585,42782,43015,43229, 
1953,43351,43542,43690,43662,43774,43788,43813,43733,43616,43478,43157,42959, 
1954,42707,42598,42362,42371,42136,42050,41966,41933,41987,42044,42215,42374, 
1955,42544,42721,43025,43287,43521,43770,43936,44089,44195,44313,44509,44673, 
1956,44808,44955,45043,45099,45139,45216,44549,45181,45119,45262,45269,45346, 
1957,45268,45452,45484,45537,45436,45364,45368,45371,45183,44997,44788,44539, 
1958,44256,43744,43452,43158,43019,42986,43065,43221,43490,43454,43915,43988, 
1959,44376,44571,44884,45178,45396,45535,45630,45156,45189,45094,45351,45807, 
1960,45967,46187,45933,46278,46040,45915,45861,45800,45734,45642,45446,45146, 
1961,45119,44969,45051,44997,45119,45289,45400,45535,45591,45716,45931,46035, 
1962,46040,46309,46375,46679,46668,46644,46720,46775,46888,46927,46910,46901, 
1963,46912,47000,47077,47316,47328,47356,47461,47542,47661,47805,47771,47863, 
1964,47925,48171,48287,48279,48419,48552,48735,48888,49117,48949,49338,49523, 
1965,49646,49826,49993,50207,50398,50562,50762,50957,51152,51340,51561,51822, 
1966,51987,52185,52499,52677,52890,53208,53327,53501,53582,53727,53816,53943, 
1967,54092,54074,54133,54032,54144,54216,54343,54552,54540,54583,55008,55165, 
1968,55011,55395,55454,55677,55747,55917,56108,56286,56420,56619,56878,57100, 
1969,57229,57474,57677,57827,58044,58277,58390,58632,58539,58689,58640,58763, 
1970,58680,58784,58850,58643,58454,58361,58358,58221,58208,57726,57579,57945, 
1971,57988,57928,57951,58092,58277,58245,58305,58327,58552,58527,58696,58918, 
1972,59179,59354,59616,59805,60051,60355,60227,60607,60693,61066,61322,61586, 
1973,61930,62306,62541,62679,62829,63014,63046,63262,63389,63628,63874,63965, 
1974,64014,64118,64143,64193,64326,64363,64346,64291,64192,64143,63727,63098, 
1975,62673,62172,61895,61668,61796,61735,61907,62284,62408,62635,62776,63071, 
1976,63537,63836,64062,64308,64340,64413,64553,64697,64921,64877,65164,65373, 
1977,65636,65931,66341,66655,66957,67281,67537,67746,68129,68331,68658,68870, 
1978,68984,69277,69730,70366,70675,71099,71304,71590,71799,72096,72497,72763, 
1979,72874,73107,73524,73441,73800,74063,74064,74067,74195,74344,74401,74489, 
1980,74599,74653,74695,74263,73961,73654,73414,73682,73875,74099,74350,74563, 
1981,74671,74752,74910,75016,75088,75323,75419,75448,75440,75302,75084,74811, 
1982,74516,74540,74398,74131,74093,73837,73620,73422,73248,72938,72793,72775, 
1983,72958,72899,73071,73362,73624,73987,74414,74101,75189,75516,75857,76202, 
1984,76647,77111,77381,77699,77979,78334,78601,78790,79070,79337,79649,79805, 
1985,80017,80128,80428,80588,80818,80939,81006,81200,81385,81556,81745,81893, 
1986,81995,82058,82155,82333,82433,82351,82669,82761,82997,83125,83275,83463, 
1987,83610,83851,84072,84365,84589,84748,85058,85216,85482,85840,86041,86287, 
1988,86363,86791,87009,87249,87447,87776,88020,88091,88341,88573,88836,89135, 
1989,89359,89579,89761,89916,89998,90079,90125,90088,90299,90404,90657,90734, 
1990,91000,91219,91317,91274,91201,91261,91215,91110,91048,90881,90730,90652, 
1991,90527,90213,90047,89839,89698,89722,89638,89684,89743,89705,89613,89622, 
1992,89624,89557,89581,89715,89827,89878,89894,89969,90058,90236,90363,90537, 
1993,90824,91065,91009,91287,91539,91694,91898,92091,92319,92595,92830,93097, 
1994,93327,93525,93947,94267,94557,94862,95198,95493,95816,96016,96416,96669, 
1995,96981,97180,97382,97537,97537,97741,97828,98107,98351,98464,98613,98741, 
1996,98738,99137,99353,99531,99840,100119,100332,100571,100728,100984,101269,101430, 
1997,101638,101934,102236,102532,102790,102984,103241,103292,103738,104018,104298,104592, 
1998,104858,105031,105169,105422,105764,105972,106040,106363,106555,106732,106973,107280, 
1999,107396,107746,107828,108135,108356,108579,108803,108959,109132,109487,109742,109992, 
2000,110210,110303,110641,110858,110738,110952,111135,111168,111392,111373,111587,111681, 
2001,111634,111624,111555,111227,111146,110910,110737,110544,110276,109918,109575,109368, 
2002,109214,109054,108989,108892,108814,108824,108732,108671,108659,108772,108758,108595, 
2003,108640,108484,108286,108252,108274,108233,108231,108266,108421,108570,108611,108724, 
2004,108879,108898,109189,109433,109729,109840,109890,109973,110144,110466,110506,110637, 
2005,110732,110941,111066,111372,111538,111816,112089,112292,112418,112541,112864,112996, 
2006,113263,113511,113748,113882,113898,113996,114180,114353,114472,114539,114710,114899, 
2007,115005,115006,115167,115195,115332,115423,115512,115544,115610,115715,115759,115745, 

Comments

This concept is not new with me, we discussed it in college:

Here's my jobs program - the use of agricultural machinery is hereby forbidden. This will clearly increase "jobs".

Of course, too bad about my suggestion's effect on the standard of living. So if the "targeted policy" is woefully inefficient, good riddance. For example, anything the failure of this legislation would do to drive a stake into the heart of "ethanol" would be a good thing, perhaps more than good enough to outweigh any and all potential benefits of its passage.

Actually I hold all of these "jobs" assertions suspect, because in almost every case, the benefits and multipliers will be paid for in full by the unwinding of something else. But, as always with corrupt lobbying, the alleged benefits are specific and visible, while the costs are diffuse and invisible.

[Bob]

"Employment and unemployment is unaffected in the aggregate." Therefore, the public should embrace subsidies for clean energy technologies because no jobs are lost, our air and water are cleaner and our future is more secure. Thank you for clearing this up for everyone.

And actually, much of the coruptness, as mentioned in the previous post, can be eliminated by increasing the upper income marginal tax rates to something like 75%. This eliminates much of the incentive for ripping people off.

[John Whitehead]

Bob,

You're right! Environmental policy is not a macroeconomic issue. If we want tax credits for renewable energy the proper justification is micro (e.g., benefits vs costs; and "jobs" aren't benefits [see above]) and not macro (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, inflation).

[David Zetland]

Bob -- you are assuming that people who are ripping off others declare/pay their taxes. BIG assumption :)

I just posted a different story on the "jobs" myth that Nestle has pitched to a town it is trying to rip-off. We gotta bury this silly rhetoric (after we bury the "imports make us poor" myth).

[David Zetland]

Bob -- you are assuming that people who are ripping off others declare/pay their taxes. BIG assumption :)

I just posted a different story on the "jobs" myth that Nestle has pitched to a town it is trying to rip-off. We gotta bury this silly rhetoric (after we bury the "imports make us poor" myth).