Energy Researchers Understand the Economic Models

Here's an article (World running out of time for oil alternatives) that has it all...rising prices, transition to alternatives, lower prices on alternatives, conservation of existing stocks, panic...looks like the economic models hold some predictive power (except for that panic part).

What do teh simple economics models of depletable oil stocks predict (CAPS below)?

INCREASING OIL PRICES creates the incentive to invest in transitional technologies...

"The high oil price makes people at least think about alternatives ... "

PRICES OF ALTERNATIVES FALL with investment...

"In 10-15 years, I expect that solar energy conversion could be in competition with electricity produced from coal," Hoff said.

CONSERVATION OF EXISTING STOCKS will ease the transition...

"That's why we need to use fossil fuels in a more efficient way to have some more time to develop these alternatives up to a level where the robustness is guaranteed and their price has come down ..."

PANIC (ok, not in the economic models)...

The world could run out of time to develop cleaner alternatives to oil and other fossil fuels before depletion drives prices through the roof...

Hmmmm...let's hope the economic models haven't missed that last part.  I don't think they have, but it still gives pause every time I see it.

Comments

[odograph]

In 10-15 years, I expect that solar energy conversion could be in competition with electricity produced from coal," Hoff said.

The great thing about a quote like that, is that it could have come anytime in the last 30 years.

[joshua corning]

""In 10-15 years, I expect that solar energy conversion could be in competition with electricity produced from coal," Hoff said."

I seem to rember that the sun only puts so many watts of power per meter on the earth...It wasn't a big number...a number like it would take 1 square meter of sunlight to power one 1 gighertz cpu chip...not very encuraging...i would like a closer analysis on this basis...how much energy do you get using curret solar cells per meter...one note though you could store the energy over time in hydrogen (from water) and then use it later on a fuel cell.

[joshua corning]

""In 10-15 years, I expect that solar energy conversion could be in competition with electricity produced from coal," Hoff said."

I seem to rember that the sun only puts so many watts of power per meter on the earth...It wasn't a big number...a number like it would take 1 square meter of sunlight to power one 1 gighertz cpu chip...not very encuraging...i would like a closer analysis on this basis...how much energy do you get using curret solar cells per meter...one note though you could store the energy over time in hydrogen (from water) and then use it later in a fuel cell.

[Don Wharton]

Peak solar energy hitting the ground if over 1,000 watts per square meter. The better sites in the United States will have over 7,000 watts of available solar energy per day. Pyron Solar estimates that the entire demand for United States electricity could be met with their prototype technology in an area less than 55 miles square. This is less than 2/3 of Death Valley.